One of the biggest North London derbies of the last decade is on the horizon as Arsenal visit Tottenham with a Champions League berth squarely on the line.
With just three matches remaining in the Premier League season, this re-scheduled match is now perfectly primed to decide which North London rival will earn fourth place and the final Champions League place in the Premier League table.
Both Manchester City and Liverpool have locked up Champions League places, and Chelsea are still a likely third-place finisher. That leaves one place for these two teams, with Arsenal holding a four-point advantage.
A win for the Gunners officially locks in a Champions League place, since being seven points clear with two matches to go mathematically clinches the berth, with the other contenders below the two North London rivals already eliminated. A draw would also serve Arsenal well, helping to maintain their four-point lead with two to play. Only a serious collapse over the final two games would see the Gunners fall short in that scenario.
That means Tottenham require a home win at all costs to realistically stay alive in the Champions League race and move to within a single point heading into the final two weekends of the Premier League season. Spurs also hold a significant edge in goal difference, giving them the advantage should the two teams finish even on points.
This match was originally scheduled for January 16, but Arsenal’s request for postponement was controversially granted by the Premier League due to serious squad constraints attributed to COVID-19 and injuries.
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How to watch Tottenham vs. Arsenal
|Date||Thurs, May 12||Thurs, May 12||Thurs, May 12||Fri, May 13|
|Time||19:45 BST||14:45 ET||14:45 ET||04:45 AEST|
|TV-channel||Sky Sports Main Event||USA Network, Universe||—||—|
UK: The North London derby is available in the UK on Sky Sports Main Event, and streamed on NOW TV.
USES: Thursday’s match is available in the United States on USA Network (English) and Universo (Spanish), which can both be accessed via fuboTV with a free trial available for new users.
Canada: In Canada the match is available via DAZN on streaming platforms.
Australia: Fans in Australia can watch the match on Optus Sport on streaming platforms.
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Tottenham vs. Arsenal predicted line-ups
The Tottenham squad is in relatively good shape for this match. Manager Antonio Conte needs to navigate the injury absences of Sergio Reguilón, Japhet Tangangaand Oliver Skipplus the untimely loss of in-form Matt Doherty. Otherwise, the squad is at full strength.
Ryan Sessegnon you have taken over for Doherty opposite EmersonRoyal at wing-back, seeing ben davies continue as part of the back-three on the heels of his excellent performance against title contenders Liverpool.
Rodrigo Betancur has been a brilliant signing for Spurs, developing an engine room partnership in midfield next to a similarly excellent Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg. up-front, Dejan Kulusevsky was benched to start the Leicester match but caused havoc when he came on, seeing him return to the starting lineup against Liverpool and likely for the rest of the stretch run.
Tottenham projected starting lineup (3-4-3): Lloris (GK) — Romero, Dier, Davies — Emerson, Hojbjerg, Betancur, Sessegnon — Kulusevski, Kane, Son.
Arsenal’s squad is in much rougher shape. Ben White‘s status is unclear, having missed the last two matches with a hamstring issue, and his availability either way could impact the match. If White does make the lineup, he could be shifted out wide right to keep Cedric from having to deal with Son Heung-min. That would leave Rob Holding to earn another start at center back.
Equally vital is the status of creative force Bukayo Sakawho came off early in the win over Leeds.
Thomas Partey and kieran tierney are two players who are certain to miss out, with Takehiro Tomiyasu continuing to fill in at left back, and Mohamed Elneny getting the open midfield spot. The in-form Eddie Nketiah should continue up front, having snatched the striker role from the aging Alexander Lacazette.
Arsenal projected starting line-up (4-2-3-1): Ramsdale (GK) — White, Holding, Gabriel, Tomiyasu — Xhaka, Elneny — Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli — Nketiah.
MORE: Will Arsenal finish top four in the Premier League table?
— Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) May 11, 2022
Tottenham vs. Arsenal betting pick & prediction
Odds via DraftKings (USA), Sports Interaction (Canada), & SkyBet (UK)
With so much on the line and often very little to separate the two, it’s a tough one to predict but the betting markets give Spurs the slight advantage as the home side.
As far as how the match might play out stylistically, it’s worth pointing out that the odds favor the over 2.5 total goals and both teams to score. So goals are expected even though Spurs and Arsenal have shown they can defend effectively in high-stakes situations.
Here are the stats to keep in mind: The home team has not lost a match between these two sides in Premier League play since a Spurs home defeat back in March of 2014. That streak spans 15 games, with Spurs winning five (all at home ), Arsenal winning four (all at home), and six draws. In addition, no team has won three in a row in this league fixture since an Arsenal run way back in 1987-89, and with the Gunners having won twice on the trot, Spurs could be expected to bounce back.
The lean here is in favor of the hosts and the under total goals with four of the last five North London derbies hosted by Tottenham seeing two or fewer goals. The matches at the Emirates are usually the wilder ones.
Pick: Tottenham or draw & under 2.5 (+110 on DraftKings)
Forecast: Tottenham 1-1 Arsenal
to score Y / N
|-165 / +130||-169 / +109||-163 / +120|
|-125 / +105||-132 / +103||—|